La-Nina Winter And What It Means For Us. 2020 - 2021

Okay. So I have been pressured into getting this 2020 - 2021 winter forecast out! lol My Aunt is very adamant about having this done. So here it is. Keep in mind however that these long range forecast have not always been my strong suit. So take this with a grain or two of salt.

With that said. Lets dive in. I will try to keep this short and sweet.

The first thing to notice with this long range forecast is something called "La-Nina". La Nina is a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this pattern, strong winds blow warm water at the ocean’s surface from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, cold water from the deep rises to the surface near the coast of South America. This has a great effect on what kind of winter season we will have here in the states.

Looking at this chart above you will see that the CPC is forecasting a weak to moderate La-Nina going through to March of 2021.

This chart below is showing the percentage of the La-Nina during each month.

Please feel free to click on these images to enlarge them.

So what does a La-Nina weather pattern typically look like here in the states? Well, take a look at this map below and it will give you a rough idea. Again this map shows a typical La-Nina. Nothing here is set in stone.

A La-Nina weather pattern typically means warmer and drier weather in the southern parts of the country with usually cooler temperatures and more weather systems in the northern half of the country. Now depending where you live in the northern half of the country will decide what you actually experience this winter. Areas near Min, and IL, as well as parts of IN, could see above average snowfall. As you get closer to the east coast things get a little more tricky. Areas around the great lakes as in Buffalo, and Rochester, NY could also see slightly above average snowfall. But as you go more east say near Albany, NY you see more wet rainy / icy weather and less snowfall. 

Looking at this map above I do believe that areas in that "Wetter" section could see at least one or two bigger snow events. Not major snow dumps exactly. But slightly above average. I'm thinking it'll be a bit of an up and down winter. Some mild days and some big drops in temperatures. But overall temps near average for the most part.

Here is a bit of a break down month to month on temperatures and snowfall looking ahead.

The chart above is showing you a month to month break down of what people can expect in central Indiana (Lafayette) moving forward. Take some time to look at the projected snowfall compared to average as well as the difference in temperatures.

Below is a chart showing month to month for the city of Rochester, NY looking ahead as well.

If that isn't enough I have put together a very simple map showing the grand total average annual snowfall for both Lafayette, Indiana and Rochester, New York along with what my projections are for the entire winter 2020 - 2021 season. Take a look.

So that's the 2020 - 2021 winter breakdown as it stands currently. I hope this helps give you all an idea as to what we can expect. 

Please continue to stay healthy. Wear a mask and be smart!

Have a great weekend.