Big Snow On The Way

Good morning everyone. I know you're all eager to hear what the weather has in store for us, so lets jump right to it.

I'm going to start with a look at the Lafayette, IN weather forecast for the snow event as we head into Monday. I'm going to start here because this is a more straight forward forecast. Most models are in agreement on totals and timing. The Rochester, NY storm however is much more tricky.

So for the Lafayette, IN area. I think you all will see snowfall Monday. Moderate at times. Along with falling temperatures through out the day. 

Right now I'm feeling pretty good forecasting for snowfall between 1" and 3" inches. There are a couple models that show a chance at 4" inches. However I think 4" inches will be more of an isolated event. With most of you seeing that 1" to 3". The other thing to talk about for you guys will be the falling temperatures. Yesterday the weather models were showing a low temperature of 15* degrees heading into Monday night. This has changed. I'm now expecting even lower temperatures, as you guys should fall closer to 11* degrees! So bundle up and drive safely if you must hit the roads. 

Rochester, however is a much more complex system. Temperatures not only at ground level but also aloft will play a HUGE role into how much snowfall we see.

I have models showing us in an all snow event, while others are pointing more toward a rain changing over to snow and possibly back to a mix and then to all snow again. The main thing I'm watching is the air temperatures aloft. Around 5,000 to 10,000 ft to be exact. If we can stay below freezing there and at the surface we should see some pretty high snowfall totals.

Above is a look at the GFS Bufkit weather model as of this morning. This is showing a mostly snow event. The GFS model is being a little more conservative at this time.

 

Right now I'm thinking we could see heavy snowfall with expected totals between 5" and 8" inches. However at this point I cannot rule out some isolated areas seeing closer to 10" inches. Right now most forecasters are putting out a very wide range of 3" to 7" inches. This is a wider range than I'd like. I feel comfortable having a slightly smaller range of 5" to 8" inches st this time.

This is a system I will be watching very closely over the next several hours. I will continue to update as I can.

Stay warm, Stay well, and thank you for reading.