The latest weather models are in for our potential first snow of the season here in the Rochester, NY area. It's really all coming down to the temperatures. How fast we will fall below that freezing point. The timing of this transition from rain to snow is the trickiest part of this forecast. And depending on when we make that complete change over will decide just how much snow accumulation we will see.
I've gone through many models over the past few hours. NAM, GFS, ECMWF, BUFKIT, etc. And this is what I'm thinking as of this morning.
Most of the models are in agreement for a change over to all snow sometime between 11:am and 1:pm Thursday. This Bufkit model of the NAM model run is showing a change over a little later. Closer to 3:pm or 4:pm. Expecting about an inch of snowfall.
The ECMWF, GFS and some other NAM models are showing the change over to all snow closer to 1:pm. Which would mean closer to an inch and a half of snow give or take a little. This is why I'm forecasting these snowfall totals below.
We're only expected to reach a high early Thursday of around 36* degrees. Temperatures falling to 22* degrees Thursday night. I think we could pick up between .50" and 1.50" inches of snow in the Northern Rochester area by the time this system is all said and done. Slightly higher amounts the more south you go as seen in this snowfall map above. Closer to 1" to 3" inches of snow the more south and east you are.
All we need is at least 1" inch of snowfall to make this our first official snow of the season! I'm excited.
Stay well bloggers. I will check back again soon. Thank you for reading.
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