Hello bloggers.
It is day 128 of my shut down due to the Coronavirus. Lately we have been talking nothing but Coronavirus on here. However today I thought I'd do something a little different. Well, maybe not different per-say. More like I'm going to do a weather blog post like I use to. Just to give you all a little break lol.
Today I thought I would break down a long term outlook for you all. Based on the fact that the NWS / CPC has issued a La-Nina watch in effect as of July 9th 2020. The reason why I wanted to talk about this with you all is because La-Nina has a great effect on our country when it comes to our winter weather season.
First off, what is La-Nina?
La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, compared to El Nino, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
El Nino, where the water is warmer than normal, is indicated by the red/yellow colors, and can be seen in the image above on the left. La Nina, where the water is cooler than normal, is indicated by blue colors seen on the right of the image.
Typically with a La Nina winter we see increased snowfall over the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as in the upper Midwest / Great Lakes area. As well as reduced snowfall seen over parts of the Central Southern Plains, Southwest, and parts of the Mid Atlantic. Though remember that this is (Typically) and not (Always), as every La Nina is different.
Below is a map that shows the basic weather pattern of La Nina.
What also matters is how strong or weak the La Nina would be. A strong La Nina will cause a different weather pattern than a weak one.
As of this time the NWS / CPC is looking for a weak La Nina come this fall into early 2021. Take a look at this chart below.
This is an early July 2020 chart showing the favorable La Nina starting pretty much in Sep / Oct.
So what do I think this means for us come this winter? Well, I'm very cautious about putting out any kind of winter forecast at this time as it is WAY too early for one. It is way to early for any 2020 - 2021 winter forecast to be accurate. I mean, we're only in July! lol. However, with that said, I did go ahead and put together a very quick and minor detailed map with an idea as to how things could play out this winter. Take a look below.
At this time in July lol. I would go with this chart above. Above average snowfall and very cold temps in the northwest. Equal to slightly above average snowfall for much of the Great Lakes Region as well as colder temperatures. I still personally think that areas in NYS could see a couple bigger snow storms and equal days of above and below average temperatures. Areas closer to the East Coast seeing warmer than average temperatures and below average snowfall.
Very dry conditions in the South and Southwest especially. As well as warmer than normal temperatures.
Now remember this is all based on a weak La Nina weather pattern developing. All of this I have said today is subject to change. I just wanted to go ahead and plant the seed in everyone's mind that a La Nina winter is looking likely. And also to remind you all that (Winter is coming).
So stay tuned to the blog because as we near fall and winter I will have many more updates on the forecast and whats in store. I'll continue to get a clearer picture as we near the end of summer.
Thanks for checking in everyone. Take care.
Please continue to practice social distancing and WEAR A MASK!!!
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